Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 1.471774e-01 0.179418 0.214345 0.254692 0.299718 0.348140 0.403870
2025-02-16 9.642911e-02 0.137004 0.185076 0.244945 0.316270 0.397374 0.495427
2025-02-23 6.241596e-02 0.105022 0.160455 0.234660 0.328380 0.440078 0.580549
2025-03-02 3.725346e-02 0.077005 0.134558 0.217630 0.328691 0.466923 0.646933
2025-03-09 2.486776e-02 0.063072 0.124148 0.218125 0.349594 0.518715 0.744658
2025-03-16 1.485769e-02 0.048869 0.109951 0.210625 0.358091 0.553981 0.822099
2025-03-23 1.068206e-02 0.043752 0.108767 0.221334 0.391470 0.622310 0.943217
2025-03-30 6.458303e-03 0.035965 0.101096 0.220638 0.407849 0.667843 1.035401
2025-04-06 3.762987e-03 0.029924 0.095013 0.221295 0.425538 0.715074 1.130385
2025-04-13 2.279489e-03 0.026179 0.092480 0.227263 0.451007 0.773367 1.241005
2025-04-20 1.382352e-03 0.023535 0.091591 0.235712 0.480290 0.837438 1.360345
2025-04-27 7.201515e-04 0.020656 0.089358 0.241262 0.504924 0.895168 1.471787
2025-05-04 2.150843e-04 0.016539 0.082970 0.238599 0.516691 0.935368 1.561105
2025-05-11 5.436418e-05 0.014265 0.080730 0.243583 0.540979 0.994342 1.677542
2025-05-18 8.930712e-07 0.011353 0.075454 0.241730 0.553563 1.036117 1.770472
2025-05-25 NaN 0.007725 0.065762 0.229120 0.546815 1.048362 1.821511
2025-06-01 NaN 0.006393 0.063584 0.232447 0.567601 1.102538 1.932921
2025-06-08 NaN 0.004502 0.057632 0.226244 0.570932 1.129729 2.005698
2025-06-15 NaN 0.004259 0.059390 0.238442 0.607841 1.209558 2.155617
2025-06-22 NaN 0.003245 0.056261 0.238284 0.621984 1.253950 2.254406
2025-06-29 NaN 0.002484 0.053768 0.239311 0.638182 1.301696 2.358529
2025-07-06 NaN 0.002100 0.053417 0.245791 0.664747 1.366209 2.487916
2025-07-13 NaN 0.001868 0.054016 0.254802 0.696292 1.439008 2.630123